US on edge: Experts warn of “vicious spiral” in political violence after Kirk killing
The assassination of right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk marks a watershed moment in a surge of US political violence, one that some experts fear will inflame an already-fractured country and inspire more unrest.
”This event is horrifying, alarming, but not necessarily surprising,” said Mike Jensen, a researcher at the University of Maryland, which has tracked such violence in a terrorism database since 1970.
In the first six months of the year, the US experienced about 150 politically-motivated attacks — nearly twice as many as over the same period last year, said Jensen. “I think we are in a very, very dangerous spot right now that could quite easily escalate into more widespread civil unrest if we don’t get a hold of it,” Jensen said. “This could absolutely serve as a kind of flashpoint that inspires more of it.”
Experts in domestic terrorism cite a convergence of factors for increased violence in the US: economic insecurity, anxiety over shifting racial and ethnic demographics, and the increasingly inflammatory tone of political discourse. Traditional ideological divides — once centered on policy disagreements — have morphed into a deeper, more personal animosity. That anger is amplified by a mix of social media, conspiracy theories and personal grievances.
Reuters identified last year at least 300 cases of political violence across the US between the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and the 2024 presidential election, marking the most significant and sustained surge in such violence since the 1970s.
“Extreme political violence is increasingly becoming the norm in our country, and the shooting of Charlie Kirk is indicative of a far greater and more pervasive issue: acts of violence are becoming more common, even without any clear ideology or motive,” said Jon Lewis, a research fellow at the Program on Extremism at George Washington University.
“There’s really a concern about what the blowback to something like this will look like.”
Other experts who study political violence agreed. “People are reluctant to engage in violence first, but they’re much more willing to engage in violence as retaliation,” said Lilliana Mason, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins University. “No one wants to be the one to start it, but lots of people want to be able to finish it.”
Kirk, a close ally of US President Donald Trump and founder of the conservative student group Turning Point USA, was addressing an outdoor crowd of about 3,000 at Utah Valley University when a gunshot rang out, sending him tumbling from his chair and attendees fleeing in panic.
Authorities had not yet publicly identified a suspect by Wednesday evening, nearly six hours after the shooting. FBI Director Kash Patel said an unnamed “subject” had been detained for questioning and then released.
Kirk, 31, was a pioneer in the conservative movement and harnessed the power of social media to lure millions of young Americans into Trump’s MAGA base.
“No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States better than Charlie,” Trump said in a social media post announcing Kirk’s death.
