Trump faces major political test as Americans vote in midterms
More than 57 million Americans had already voted early before Tuesday, indicating the high energy
washington
American voters will deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump’s second term in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with polls and nonpartisan analysts favoring Democrats to wrest the House from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most in Republican strongholds.
History is against Trump’s Republicans: the sitting president’s party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. Trump’s approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down by deep voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices.
There is little doubt this year’s election is all about Trump, the central US political figure for most of the last decade. Trump himself has told his supporters repeatedly to “pretend I’m on the ballot,” a message Democratic leaders have happily echoed.
The president has held more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, the vast majority in states he easily won in 2024, underscoring the extent to which Republicans are playing defence.
Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist. “The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history,” Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington.
But opinion polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue, after his sweeping tariff policy and his decision to attack Iran in February increased domestic costs. Republican candidates, meanwhile, have struggled to distance themselves from a president who demands fealty and rarely acknowledges mistakes.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats, though the majority of contests are not considered competitive. Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.
A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations into what Democrats describe as self-dealing by the Trump administration and demand concessions to approve legislation.
A Democratic Senate would also have the power to block Trump appointments, including US Supreme Court nominations if vacancies arise.
But while Democrats have put Republicans on the defensive on much of their home turf, they have little margin for error. The party must defend all of its current seats, including a tight race in Michigan, while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a double-digit margin two years ago: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of those states.
Michigan race roiled by cross-party endorsement
The Michigan Senate contest between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 42, and Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers, 63, received a fresh jolt on Sunday, when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the party’s primary election, endorsed Rogers in a surprise reversal.
In addition to the implications for Senate control, the Michigan race represents a high-profile test of whether Republicans’ identity-based attacks – El-Sayed would be the nation’s first Muslim senator — prove effective in a battleground state.
A win for El-Sayed, who has criticised Israel and supports liberal policies such as universal healthcare, would also boost the party’s left wing ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
