Gold snaps 2-week losing streak with Rs1,900/tola uptick

ISLAMABAD: Gold price in the country snapped its two-week losing streak and surged by Rs1,900 (+0.89 percent) per tola due to a rise in prices in the international markets amid a softer dollar and geopolitical tensions. The gold rate for a single tola of 24-karat increased to Rs215,100 from Rs213,200 during the week, according to the data shared by the Karachi Sarafa Association. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold closed the week at Rs184,414 against Rs182,785 at the start of the week, reflecting an uptick of Rs1,629. Following suit, the price for 10 grams of 22-karat gold surged to Rs169,046 from Rs167,553 during the week under review, reflecting an uptick of Rs1,493. TLTP
In global markets, gold closed the week at $2,035.30 per ounce against $2,013.20 in the preceding week, showing a week-on-week gain of $22.10 (+1.1 percent).
It’s important to note that gold rates in Pakistan are influenced by trends in the global market. These fluctuations in gold rates are closely tied to changes in the value of the US dollar, demonstrating the intricate relationship between currency values and gold prices. This connection highlights the impact of global economic factors on the local gold markets.
Gold fluctuated in a relatively narrow channel as it failed to benefit from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US dollar last week. Nevertheless, gold ended up posting over one percent weekly gains.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, said in the minutes of the January policy meeting on Wednesday that most policymakers noted the risks associated with moving too quickly to ease the interest rate policy. Furthermore, the publication showed that officials highlighted uncertainty around how long the restrictive policy stance would be needed.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that they are not in a rush to begin a reduction in interest rates, citing the need to see further evidence of inflation cooling. “Cutting too soon could squander inflation progress and risk considerable harm to the economy,” Waller argued. The market reaction remained subdued ahead of the weekend and Gold remained within its weekly range on Friday.
Markets are fairly certain that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged at the 5.25pc-5.5pc range at the March policy meeting. The probability of a rate cut in May currently stands at 20 percent. The market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room on the upside even if the US inflation data confirms that there won’t be a Fed policy pivot until June.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart retreated to 50, reflecting a lack of bullish momentum. In case gold falls below the $2,020 level and confirms it as resistance, it could encounter strong support at $2,005-$2,000, which is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and psychological level, before targeting $1,980 (static level).
On the flip side, $2,040 aligns as immediate resistance. A daily close above this hurdle could attract technical buyers and open the door for a leg higher towards $2,050 (static level) and $2,065 (static level).